Cooling countdown: Is the GCC Region ready for the refrigerant shift?
As the Kigali phasedown approaches, experts warn that the GCC region’s cooling sector must accelerate policy clarity, industry readiness and supply-chain adaptation to avoid shortages and compliance gaps
In a region where air conditioning is as essential as running water, the question hanging over this industry was not if change would come, but whether the people responsible for that change were moving fast enough to manage it or not.
This question is no longer theoretical. Speaking on this matter from the perspectives of manufacturing and supply chain is Amir Naqvi, General Manager, Middle East, Solstice Advanced Materials. And giving a regulatory perspective is Dr Ahmed Alaa Eldin Mohamed, Past Director, Regional Chair 2018-2021, ASHRAE, based on tracking how Gulf governments are tightening the rules under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol and related climate commitments.
When the discussion turns to how prepared the region really is, Naqvi does not pretend everything is already in place. “The Middle East refrigerant supply chain is currently in a state of active transition to low‑GWP (global warming potential) alternatives,” he says, describing “significant progress while simultaneously working to remove any structural bottlenecks, such as training workforce for handling mildly flammable (A2L) refrigerants, having warehouses ready for A2L refrigerants and other items”. Major manufacturers, he notes, have already reworked their catalogues. “Many large projects in District Cooling, commercial refrigeration, commercial air conditioning and data centre cooling already have used low‑GWP refrigerants for close to a decade in the region,” he says.
For Naqvi, the main concern is what happens if the industry waits too long. “When there is a disconnect between the regulation and market adoption, it creates a volatile environment for stakeholders,” he warns, adding that Solstice has “seen these patterns globally”. He lists three risks: The “risk of stranded assets”, if companies delay and are left with systems that cannot easily be serviced; “supply chain imbalance and a grey or black market” that puts legitimate businesses at a disadvantage and raises safety concerns; and “technical preparedness and training gaps” around new, mildly flammable refrigerants. In his view, all three become sharper the closer the region gets to key phase‑down dates.
Those dates are what preoccupy Dr Mohamed. From his side of the table, the story starts with signatures and legal texts. “From a policy and regulatory standpoint, GCC Region markets are entering a crucial preparation phase for the next phase of refrigerant regulation,” he says, pointing to the HFC phasedown under the Kigali Amendment and newer low‑GWP policies. “But their readiness is still evolving and varies by country.” The UAE, he notes, has already ratified Kigali and “is the first GCC Region member-country to do so, committing to freeze HFC production by 2028 and a phasedown through 2047”. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman are further along the ratification path, while “Qatar is the only GCC Region member that had not yet ratified by late 2025, though pressure and consensus indicate ratification is likely forthcoming”. Ratification, he stresses, creates binding obligations on HFC consumption and sets phase‑down schedules, but enforcement and detailed implementation mechanisms are still under development across most GCC region countries.
That gap between headline commitments and day‑to‑day reality is where pressure is building. Under the international timetable for many Gulf states, there will be a freeze on HFC consumption and production from 2028, a 10% reduction around 2032, and steeper cuts later in the 2030s and the 2040s. Dr Mohamed sums up the dilemma bluntly in a single line, “Current compliance timelines, particularly the 2028 freeze and the early phasedown milestones are technically achievable as policy targets, but they are likely unrealistic in practice, unless GCC Region markets accelerate adoption of alternatives, strengthen enforcement and scale up industry capacity well ahead of schedule.” Industry warnings suggest how that could feel on the ground: Rising cooling demand and the way the baseline is calculated mean that “by 2032, the first 10% reduction might be experienced as a 30% effective shortage of HFC refrigerants in practice, if alternatives aren’t adopted rapidly.”
Naqvi’s answer to that risk is simple: Move early and move together. “The ‘wait‑and‑see’ approach is the greatest risk to regional industry,” he says. In his view, original equipment manufacturers, distributors and contractors all need to commit upfront. With time on their side, he says, OEMs can plan for supply constraints, contractors can properly train their teams on updated handling, installation and safety procedures for the low‑GWP refrigerants, and that distributors can clear legacy inventory and transition their stock efficiently. He says Solstice is already trying to accelerate that shift, supporting regional industry readiness by bringing a wealth of expertise gained from spearheading similar refrigerant transitions across Europe and the USA, and running webinars and training with partners on A2L refrigerants.
Dr Mohamed agrees that the clock is ticking, but says the biggest obstacle is not willingness, it is clarity. He calls policy clarity “the biggest bottleneck”, arguing that even willing, capable markets stall when the rules aren’t precise. Regulations often spell out the destination – the phasedown of HFCs – but not the route. “Many regulations state what must happen – HFC phasedown – but not clearly how markets should transition,” he says. Safety codes, building rules and fire standards, he says, often lag behind refrigerant policy, especially for A2L and natural refrigerants, and detailed questions about import licences, quotas and penalties are still being worked out. The result, he says, is predictable: Manufacturers and developers hedge their bets, delay redesigns and continue specifying legacy refrigerants ‘until forced otherwise’.
Next comes enforcement. Dr Mohamed labels it “the risk multiplier”. Weak enforcement, he says, turns ambitious policy into theoretical compliance. Monitoring of imports and stockpiles, he says, is still developing, and not all ports and authorities are fully equipped to identify blends, GWP values or mis-declared refrigerants. In several markets, he adds, enforcement is still largely advisory rather than corrective or punitive. That may be manageable now, but once phasedown steps begin, non‑compliant imports and grey markets become economically attractive. In that scenario, he warns, legitimate players are penalised first, while laggards gain short‑term cost advantages, undermining confidence among early adopters.
Both men point to training and standards as the levers that can change the outcome. Naqvi argues that stakeholders should not wait for local mandates to reach their final phase, and urges them to work with companies with a global footprint to evaluate product options and ensure compliance with global standards. He says acting now would help the region move from transactional buying to strategic supply relationships, test low‑GWP options in Gulf heat, and start planning for recovery and reclamation of refrigerants.
Dr Mohamed, meanwhile, focuses on the organisations that turn broad laws into engineering rules. He says standards bodies, such as ISO, IEC, ASHRAE, EN, and national code authorities take mandates, such as reducing HFCs and translate them into charge limits, leak detection requirements, ventilation and zoning rules, equipment classification (A1, A2L, A3), and installation and servicing protocols. “Without this layer,” he says, “regulators can ban a refrigerant, but engineers still don’t know what they’re allowed to install, instead.” In the Gulf, where cooling loads are high and systems are often centralised, he argues that standards mitigate the risk associated with A2L and natural refrigerants by defining safety envelopes, give fire services and municipalities confidence to approve projects, and offer insurers and developers defensible compliance benchmarks. His shorthand for the reality on the ground is stark: “In practice, no standard = no permit, even if regulation allows it.”
On enforcement, Dr Mohamed predicts governments will avoid sudden shocks. He expects an initial period of soft enforcement or signalling, in the forms of import registration, reporting, voluntary compliance, guidance and education‑first inspections, designed to change behaviour before punishment. After that, he foresees “selective enforcement”, starting with new equipment and priority sectors and targeting serious breaches. Only later, once markets have adjusted, does he anticipate full enforcement with market maturity, including strict import quotas, penalties for non‑compliant specifications and links to building permits and occupancy certificates. A hard cut‑off, he argues, would risk refrigerant shortages, cost spikes, project delays, grey‑market imports and political pushback. “No GCC Region government wants cooling security questioned in a hot climate,” he says. “So expect managed descent, not a regulatory free‑fall.”
Seen together, their comments sketch the outlines of the next decade for the Gulf’s cooling sector. On one side is Dr Mohamed’s assessment: “The success of the next regulatory phase in the GCC Region countries will depend heavily on harmonised standards, proactive industry adaptation and capacity building, including training, certification and supporting infrastructure in the coming few years.” On the other hand, Naqvi’s message to the market is that companies that move early can avoid stranded assets and grey‑market risks and help steer the region from transactional buying to strategic supply relationships, built around low‑GWP technologies. Between now and the 2028 freeze, the outcome will be decided less by the text of international agreements than by how quickly governments, standards bodies and industry manage to close the gap between rules on paper and equipment on the ground.
