IGCC report shows Earth’s energy imbalance at record high as global warming accelerates
BONN, Germany, 11 June 2026: Copernicus Climate Change Service said strong and consistent evidence shows that the entire climate system is continuing to heat, driving rapid global warming. According to Copernicus, human activities pushed global warming to 1.37 degrees C in 2025, and its level is projected to surpass 1.5 degrees C in about four years. Crucially, the programme added that the rate at which heat is accumulating in the Earth system suggests high levels of future warming.
Making the announcement through a June 11 Press Release, Copernicus said these are some of the key findings from the latest Indicators of the Global Climate Change (IGCC) report, published in Earth System Science Data. Copernicus added that an international team of more than 70 scientists, including IPCC Lead Authors, Contributing Authors and Chapter Scientists from 56 institutions across 17 countries contributed to this year’s study. Copernicus said that from 2026, production of the IGCC is contracted by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, and implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission.
Professor Piers Forster, Director, Priestley Centre for Climate Futures, University of Leeds, lead author, said: “A key indicator is the Earth’s energy imbalance, which measures how fast heat is accumulating in the climate system, and provides a crucial measure of the pace of climate change. Without human influence, it should be close to zero, but it has been growing since the 1970s and is now at a record high, doubling in recent decades.”
Published on the same day, Copernicus said global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are at an all-time high, reaching 56.8 billion tonnes (gigatonnes, or Gt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2024, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels. Copernicus added that 2025 was the third warmest year on record, consistent with the level of human-caused warming the world has experienced, and that natural variability in the climate system had a limited effect on global mean temperatures last year.
Dr Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF, said: “Our study demonstrates that nearly all of the warming over the last decade is driven by human activities. The impacts on livelihoods and ecosystems are already being felt worldwide, and will accelerate as temperatures continue to increase.”
Copernicus said the rate of human-induced warming remains at the all-time high of around 0.27 degrees C per decade, driven primarily by record-high greenhouse gas levels combined with the continued fall in sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions, partly resulting from measures to tackle air pollution. Copernicus added that while CO2 emissions remain the dominant driver of global warming, the reduction in sulphur aerosols is unmasking part of the warming effect of GHGs.
Dr Matt Palmer, Science Fellow, UK Met Office, said: “It comes down to a simple principle: We are emitting more greenhouse gases than ever before, causing rising greenhouse gas levels, which are trapping more and more heat in the atmosphere and pushing the world out of balance.”
Dr Karina Von Schuckmann, Senior Advisor, Ocean Science, Mercator Ocean International, added: “The Earth’s energy imbalance is growing fast, driving changes in every component of the climate system, including ocean and continental warming, permafrost thawing, ice loss, and sea level rise.”
Copernicus said consistent with the increase in the Earth’s energy imbalance, the rate of global sea level rise is accelerating due to higher ocean temperatures and the melting of land-based ice.
Dr Aimée Slangen, Research Leader, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), said: “In 2025, global sea level rise reached a new record of 23 cm of rise since 1901, at a rate of around 1.8 mm per year, and this rate is speeding up fast. This might sound small, but even this level of change is increasing coastal flooding in low-lying areas around the world, harming livelihoods and ecosystems.”
Copernicus said changes in the occurrence and intensity of climate and weather extremes provide supporting evidence of widespread changes in the climate system. Copernicus added that a newly included indicator, the number of days experiencing marine heatwaves, found that, globally, 2025 alone experienced 65 days of marine heatwaves.
Professor June-Yi Lee, Professor, Research Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National University, highlighted: “Marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent, consistent with the ongoing warming of the ocean surface. The number of days experiencing marine heatwaves has more than tripled globally between 1991 and 2025. These events harm marine ecosystems while threatening food production, economies and coastal protection. They also disrupt ocean-atmosphere carbon exchange, ocean acidity and oxygen levels, and can intensify extreme weather on land.”
Copernicus said the remaining carbon budget, the total amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted while keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees C, is estimated at 130 Gt CO2 from the start of 2026. Copernicus added that this central estimate will be exhausted in around three years at current levels of CO2 emissions.
Copernicus said that despite GHG emissions not increasing as rapidly as in the 2000s, this year’s findings continue to show how far and how fast the climate is changing due to human activity, underlining the need for society to massively scale up decarbonisation efforts during this critical decade. Copernicus added that preserving and maintaining the global datasets crucial for providing up-to-date, accurate and comprehensive information for evidence-based decision-making will be critical to detecting these changes in future.
Dr Chris Smith, Senior Research Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, added: “This year’s edition of IGCC has involved over 40 global datasets, many of which are now threatened by funding decisions. We need concerted international action and coordination to ensure the continuity of observations of the climate. Without this, future assessments will be much more difficult at a time when urgent climate action is needed.”