On November 29, 2024, Eurovent Market Intelligence (EMI) published its latest comprehensive report, HVACR 2030, which offers an analysis of the HVACR sector in 2023. This fourth edition of EMI’s ongoing series explores key industry trends and challenges, and presents a forward-looking forecast through 2030. The extensive study is intended as a resource for manufacturers, investors and policymakers seeking insights into current market dynamics, emerging technologies and opportunities.

Covering 16 products under five chapters: Cooling, Refrigeration, Thermodynamics, Terminal units and Ventilation, the report focuses on the European market, which includes the EU27, Balkan countries, Norway, Switzerland, Türkiye, UK and Ukraine.

The first section of the report, dedicated to cooling, is a comparison of the cooling tower and dry cooler markets. The dry cooler market amounted to €372.7 million in 2023 in Europe, compared to €210 million for cooling towers, the former being dominated by Germany and the latter by Türkiye. The evolution in value was much more favourable in 2023 for dry coolers, with +15% while that of cooling towers stagnated. This is part of an underlying trend in Europe, which is seeing the dry cooler market progressing more quickly than that of cooling towers. Between the two, the adiabatic and hybrid dry coolers are progressing the fastest, but another confrontation is looming between the simple spray and pad systems. As can be seen in the graph opposite, pad systems dominate the market, but this trend could be reversed.

The chapter on refrigeration covers the market for coolers and condensers, including CO₂ units. The former totalled 271,000 units, compared to 48,900 for the latter in 2023. The market is dominated by France, followed by Italy and then Germany, but the most interesting point is, of course, the evolution of CO₂ units in Europe. Their proportion increased from 12% in 2019 to 20% in 2023: It is higher in northern Europe – around 50% — but this is not necessarily where the largest markets or the strongest growths are. As for ammonia (NH3) units, the large markets are in Spain, Poland and the Netherlands, but once again, the growth potential is elsewhere.

In the chapter on thermodynamics, the market evolution in 2023 showed a positive trend overall, except for the rooftop segment, which experienced stagnation in unit numbers. One of the standout segments of 2023 involved chillers with a capacity above 50 kW, which experienced remarkable double-digit growth, reaching a market value of €1,997.7 million. It must be noted that air-cooled and water-cooled chillers fuelled the expansion. While the long-term analysis by cooling and heating type revealed differing trends, the refrigerant analysis concluded that the phase-down of HFCs in 2023 was rather slow, despite a decline in the use of R-410A.

The report also features an analysis of refrigerants based on capacity, heat source, type of cooling or heating, compressor and application. Additionally, it includes a forecast of the chiller market by refrigerant up to the year 2030.

The CRAC/CRAH market also enjoyed double-digit growth in 2023, with unit sales increasing by 15% and market value rising by 33%, reaching €375.8 million. This growth was primarily driven by the rising demand for high-capacity CRAH units (over 100 kW), which are essential for hyperscale and large enterprise data centres. The units have consistently experienced growth since 2015, although there was a brief slowdown in 2021, due to uncertainties following the pandemic. However, the market rebounded in 2022, and in 2023, there was a 28% increase in sales of large units.

In the section dedicated to terminal units, the report highlights the positive growth of the fan-coil unit market, which was valued at €570 million in 2023. The market is primarily driven by units without casing, which makes up about one-third of the market, slightly surpassing units with casing. The strong growth in 2023 contrasted with the chilled-beam market, which remained particularly stable in both value and structure. In 2023, the sales of chilled beams reached almost 64 million euros, with Sweden alone accounting for more than a third of the amount. A modest decline is expected for the chilled-beam sector through 2030, as fan-coil units – a more cost-effective solution – continue to gain market share.

Finally, in the chapter on ventilation, the report features three products: Air-handling units (AHUs), central residential mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and air filters. Only the last product demonstrated stable growing dynamics. Largest in the ventilation sector in Total Europe, the AHU market (around 2.9 billion euro sales) in 2023, grew by +7.5% in euro terms but stagnated in units. The situation by country varied a lot, with only southern Europe and the United Kingdom having a positive evolution in units. The year 2023 for the AHU market was highlighted by turning the rotary into the dominant heat recovery technology in Europe (37% against 32% for the plate), with a high probability of keeping this prevalence in the future. Additionally, the report explores the correlation between the evolution dynamics of AHUs and integrated control and compact units, which both suffered a decrease in 2023, following the weak performance of retail and light-commercial applications.

The central residential MVHR market experienced the worst downturn in the ventilation segment, with a 10% decline, impacted by the crisis in new residential construction all over Europe. Among significant markets, only Spain and the United Kingdom enjoyed a positive evolution in 2023, while northern and eastern Europe dipped by around -20%.

The EMI forecast predicts a gradual recovery, though rather slow and not immediate. Despite the overall decrease, the units with enthalpy slightly increased, but mainly in eastern Europe. Unlike that for AHU, the share of rotary heat recovery in central residential MVHR in Total Europe diminished in 2023, which is likely related to the strong decline in northern Europe, the region where this heat recovery type dominates. Additionally, the report analyses the defrosting strategies used in different European countries and the preferences by the unit’s mounting type.

Editor’s Note: EMI’s database, which includes contributions from over 500 participants, formed the foundation for the HVACR 2030 report, providing an understanding of the economic, technological and regulatory factors shaping the HVACR sector. The report spans 154 pages. For more details, readers may contact: statistics@eurovent-marketintelligence.eu