The COP28 Summit (28^th Conference of Parties), held a little over six months ago in Dubai under the aegis of the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), was unique on three counts. Firstly, it was the first Conference of Parties where the President of the conference was himself head of the world’s 12^th largest oil-producing company. And still, it is the first COP that agreed to transition away from fossil fuel, including oil. Secondly, it was the first COP where the global stock take (GST) took place to assess the collective progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, particularly those related to mitigation, adaptation, loss & damage and finance. And thirdly, it was the first COP that agreed on moving towards the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement in a ‘just’ manner. The word ‘just’ meant that the transition to a carbon-neutral and fossil fuel-free economic system, needed for achieving the goals, should be as ‘fair and inclusive’ as possible to all the stakeholders, including workers and communities, in creating decent work opportunities and leaving no one behind.

Interestingly, what the world has been witnessing for the last six months is also, sadly, a ‘first of its kind’ in the history of climate change. May 2024, as per the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), was the 12th consecutive month with continued record-high global average temperatures. April 2024 was 1.58 degrees C warmer than an estimate of the April average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period to measure the increase in global average temperature. Though crossing the limit of warming by 1.5 degrees C for one or couple of years does not signal failure of the Paris Climate Agreement, it is certainly the early warning for possible long term rise of temperature beyond 1.5 degrees C and impending failure of the world to achieve the first of the two more stringent  goals of the Agreement.

The extent of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere in April was the smallest on record. Drought hit southern Africa, persistent heavy rainfall lashed eastern Africa and southern Brazil, and floods ravaged Afghanistan and Germany – all of which show the impact has been widespread. Loss of lives stretched from Mexico to India, and to Myanmar, due to record-breaking heatwaves. China witnessed mudslides, and the Arabian peninsula went through a harrowing experience when extreme rainfall hit the land in the April-May 2024 season, causing unprecedented disruption. I understand that the April 16 rainfall is the subject of this supplement.

Further, the commitment, pledges and implementation, according to decisions of COP28, are all forgotten and overshadowed by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. The global community is engaging in gut-wrenching debates on reasons for the deluge in the UAE and Oman, but it is refusing to engage in ways to mitigate extreme-weather events that are increasing in their frequency and intensity, and to implement the short-term and long-term decisions taken in COP28. The world has started  learning new terminologies, like ‘Heat-Dome’ but has not bothered to adequately learn of the new ways to address the climate challenge. By the way, ‘Heat-Dome’ is the dome of high pressure, where hot air is pushed down causing temperatures to soar over large areas. Millions of people in the United States experienced extreme temperatures in early June as a result of a ‘heat dome’. Ripple effects are showing impacts on agriculture, food-security, water, and even on health and education of Gen Z due to closure of schools and colleges.

But those are not all the traps from where eight billion humans are struggling to come out of. The world is also locked in bitter negotiations, as exemplified in the Pre-COP29 climate conference that ended on the midnight of June 13 in Bonn, Germany. A phony communique, issued after the 50^th G7 meeting, in Fasano, Italy, proved to be another trap of verbose commitment.

The issue of how the Global South would be financed by developed countries for mitigation, adaptation and loss & damage, eclipsed the wider proceedings in Bonn. The key objectives of carrying forward the outcomes from the Global Stocktake in COP28 and for the new global climate-finance goal to be operative from 2025, have remained unfulfilled. Many delegates expressed dismay that the outcomes in the Bonn Climate Conference are extremely hard to pin and pen down!

The G7 meeting was even more foggy. Communique 48^th G7 meeting in Germany listed climate change on top , the 49^th meeting in Japan listed it in the middle, and the 50^th meeting in Italy listed it towards the latter half. It was as if world leaders were unaware of the unprecedented impacts of the climate crisis.

The key question for all stakeholders now is, ‘Six months before COP29, is there any light at the end of the dark tunnel, which is now getting darker as the years pass by?’ I can emphatically say, ‘Yes’, provided we look at the facts and figures, and focus less on the protests and speeches.

As for the finances promised, but not yet fully provided, to the Global South to neutralise the existential threat of our planet, we can clearly see that there is no political will by the developed countries, although finances, indeed, are available with them. For example, in the last two and a half years, the EU and the United States alone have financially supported Ukraine to the extent of USD 275 billion. That itself is more than USD 100 billion annually agreed by developed countries to the Global South, as per the Paris Climate Agreement. These two have provided aid to Israel and Palestine for military operations and humanitarian purposes. To top it all, the global fossil fuel subsidies, mainly provided by the developed countries, rose to USD 7 trillion in 2022, as per the International Monetary Fund (IMF). World governments agreed at COP26, in Glasgow, to phase out “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies to help fight global warming; the ground reality is that governments continue to subsidise fossil fuels.

The amount of USD 100 billion that developed countries agreed to provide to developing countries on an annual basis is thus looking much smaller than all the funds made available over the last couple of years by the developed countries. If these finances exist, they ought to be channelled for addressing the climate crisis. The world leaders of the developed countries only need political will to help yet another war – the third war – a climate war between Nature and humanity.

And what about technologies needed for the transition? China is demonstrating how green technologies can become a powerhouse for change. China is the leading country in the world for solar panels, electric vehicles and energy-storage batteries. The Chinese leadership wants clean energy industries to spur future economic growth around the world, and to energise China’s own pursuit of being self-sufficient in clean energy to achieve Net Zero by 2060. In 2022, China installed roughly as much solar capacity as the rest of the world combined, then doubled additional solar in 2023. The massive production of solar panels, batteries and EVs is also bringing down prices that could make them affordable to the common citizenry. India is also aggressively increasing its solar capacity. The percentage of bicycle users in France is increasing steeply. Brazil has taken the lead in preventing further deforestation. And Masdar, in the UAE, is strategising the expansion of solar energy. Countries are forming partnerships for the development of Green Hydrogen as a source of clean energy. Equally heartening, the development of small nuclear plants and fusion reactors is being widely explored. The G7 and the G20 are not adequate groupings to resolve the climate crisis. We need a massive constructive partnership – a ‘G196’. The way the world tackled COVID-19 together was admirable; we need the same collective template to tackle the climate pandemic