“Humanity is on thin ice – and that ice is melting fast.” Those were the words UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres used in desperation, when he spoke during a Press Conference on March 20, 2023, the day when the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) released its 6th report. “The climate time-bomb is ticking,” he added.

Indeed, the world is running out of time and out of options to defuse the ‘ticking climate time bomb.’

The day after the Press Conference, the world woke up to such headlines in newspapers and on social media: ‘Final bell’, ‘Shrill warnings’, ‘Battle lines are drawn’, ‘Can we really be back on track?’ They were like flash-reactions.

So, what was the report about? To give you a background, Dr Hoesung Lee, Chair, IPCC, released the fourth and final part of the 6th Assessment Report (AR6), called Synthesis Report, in Switzerland. Since then, it has been hailed as the final report before 2030, as the next IPCC report is expected only after 2030, widely regarded as a milestone year, in which humanity would experience the fate of its own existence on Earth.

Dr Rajendra Shende

AR6 is expected to serve as the key mega report on science, impacts and solutions for COP28, to be held later in the year in the UAE. It is also considered as a survival guide for humanity. And survival needs nothing less than a quantum leap in climate action.

AR6 is based on a peer-review process of 18,000 scientific papers compiled by 278 authors from 65 countries. It has been finalised after 60,000 comments from reviewers from the governments and other experts. It has highlighted the Earth’s frighteningly delicate balancing act, of how the planet is resting on the proverbial fulcrum that may prove to be a tipping point for humanity.

Fortunately, the window of opportunity for remedial measures is still open. Though AR6 speaks of a climate time-bomb that is ticking, it serves as a how-to manual for defusing it. Indeed, the IPCC report has not just stopped at blowing the emergency siren – it has laid out the milestones and guiding posts to be achieved as a matter of emergency. It provides options for preventing the soon-to-arrive waves of catastrophe on a planetary scale. It can be used by policy makers to seek a way out of the crisis. The dire message is straight – we must start a massive mitigation drive, literally NOW!

Established in 1988, the IPCC has been releasing assessment reports since 1990 in 5-7-year intervals. Each assessment is framed in three sections, called Working Groups-I, II and III. The first Working Group covers the physical science of climate change, including observations and trends of human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, resulting in the climate crisis. The second provides data on the observed and possible impacts of the climate crisis, including the ways to adapt to them. The third deals with ways to mitigate GHG emissions through technologies and processes. Then comes the ‘Synthesis Report’, which summarises the contents from all the three working groups and culls out messages, mainly for the benefit of policymakers and business decisionmakers to act, track and monitor.

The reports of the three working groups of AR6 were published in August 2021, and in February and April 2022, respectively. The Synthesis Report, an oven-fresh document, was released on March 20, 2023, as earlier mentioned. It reconfirms the key targets in the Paris Climate Agreement, in 2015, but goes beyond it and advances the battle lines.

Target I: The world should peak the emission of GHGs by 2025 to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C over the pre-industrial level. So, the time has come to cross the less-stringent goal of 2 degrees C and strive for limiting the temperature to 1.5 degrees C.

Target II: GHG emissions should be reduced by 45% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels. The need is for “deep, rapid and sustained greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors”.

Target III: Take human-induced GHG emissions to as close to zero as possible, with any remaining emissions re-absorbed from the atmosphere by oceans and forests, for instance.

How is AR6 different from the last IPCC report?

The last IPCC report, AR5 was released in 2014, just before the pathbreaking COP21, in Paris. A landmark global pact to combat climate change was then agreed. The roadmap for resolute mitigation was laid out by world leaders for accelerating and intensifying the actions and investments. A sustainable low-carbon future by limiting the warming to 2 degrees C, above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing the efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees C, was the core decision.

AR6 re-confirms the undeniable scientific consensus on cause-and-effect relations and current devastating impacts. It highlights the critical cliff on which the world – particularly vulnerable countries – are standing. The report says that warming by 1.5 degrees C is likely to be reached in a couple of years, if the rise in carbon emissions continues. The key message that emanates from AR6 is that the world has almost failed in the battle against climate crisis by missing the first target of limiting the warming.

The limit of 1.5 degrees C was included in the Paris Agreement mainly due to the insistence of Small Island Developing Sates (SIDs), who face the existential threat in the short term. With a nearly 1.2 degrees C warming that has already been recorded, AR6 declares that global temperatures are “more likely than not” to climb to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Many SIDS have already started sinking, and the population is being relocated to within and outside the country. Left with no choice, entire communities of people – climate refugees – have already started migrating. This is, indeed, an extreme form of climate injustice, for the countries who contributed the least to the present-day climate crisis have started suffering the most.

Global climate agreements are now routinely called ‘Global Commitment-failure Agreements. Pledges made leading up to and during COP26 haven’t even started the implementation journey that is tied to them. A promise of annual financial assistance – starting with USD 10 billion per year in 2010, reaching to USD 100 billion by 2020 – has been grossly breached. As per cumulative calculation, the amount awaited from developed countries now stands at nearly USD 1 trillion. That promise was given from developed to developing countries, as part of a ‘polluters to pay’ principle. Barely one per cent of that cumulative funds has been provided to the developing countries.

AR6 observes a ray of positive news, though. First, the rate of increase of emissions has decreased – we’re increasing at roughly 1.3% each year, and in the previous decade it was around double that. However, as per UNEP’s 2022 Emission Gap Report, much more massive reduction in emissions is needed, and “the window is closing! The world is not on track to reach the Paris Agreement goals, and global temperatures can reach 2.8 degrees C by the end of the century”. Second, over the last decade, costs of renewable energy are decreasing – solar by 85%, wind by 55% and energy storage by 85%. The trend is powerful in its literal sense. The urgency to shift away from fossil fuels is now backed by better financial viability.

What is really needed to overcome the climate crisis?

The Working Group III report of IPCC clearly states that:

1. Rapid reduction in direct emissions through energy-efficiency measures, particularly in the context of energy-intensive HVACR appliances – fans, air conditioning and refrigeration – are one of the urgent measures that fit well in the net-zero call given by the IPCC. Higher efficiency equipment can reduce energy use by 50%, which nearly navigates to the emission target of 2030.
2. Accelerating the massive use of renewable energy in the buildings and transport sectors can take us quickly near to the 2050 targets.
3. Speedy research on sustainable technologies for electric mobility; the use of bio-fuel; green, blue and grey hydrogen; energy storage and carbon-removal technologies would help not only in decarbonisation but would also help in reducing air pollution.
4. The transformation need not be always based on algorithms and Artificial Intelligence. Nature solutions, like use of wind and solar as mitigation technology and the use of trees and mangroves as means for controlling floods, not only help in decarbonising but, more importantly, also contribute to economic and social development and teach us a valuable lesson on ‘living with Nature’ and not ‘living on Nature’.
5. Focussing on swift reduction of the often-overlooked, short-lived climate-pollutant (SLCP) that have a short-term warming impact on climate but more powerful Global Warming Potential (GWP) would be the ‘life-jackets’ for the world sinking under climate impact. Reduction in emission of fugitive leaks of methane (GWP of more than 30) from the oil & gas industry, of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with GWP 1,000 times that of Carbon Dioxide, are quick measures, for which, thankfully enough, alternative technologies are available.
6. Brisk phase-down and then phase-out of coal and the oil & gas industry must be achieved in a collaborative manner through private-public partnership.

Afforestation to enhance the carbon sink, carbon removal measures, carbon capture and storage efforts and carbon trading initiatives are aspects on which research and piloting need to be done to assess their feasibility.

Commenting on actions expected from messages of urgency emanating from IPCC’s AR6, H.E. Dr Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, President-Designate, COP28, called for “system-wide transformation”. That transformation resonates well with the message of the UN Secretary General that “massively fast-track climate efforts by every country and every sector and on every timeframe are needed. Our world needs climate action on all fronts – everything, everywhere, all at once”.

H.E. Dr Al Jaber’s comments refer to not only systems of governments but also systems of thought process among businesses, local governments and individuals. Indeed, such transformation of mindset is needed, considering the fast-closing window of opportunity, to crack open the main doors of solutions to win the battle against the climate crisis.

The words, ‘system-wide transformation’ by H.E. Dr Al Jaber constitute the clarion call for the revolution in waiting. When the CEO of an oil company and the Minister of Industry and Innovation of a country whose prosperity has emerged from oil and gas, gives a call that we need to step up efforts to hit net-zero emissions by adopting renewable and zero-carbon energies, decarbonising the current energy system and by investing in proven and new mitigation technologies, one gets an intense feeling that the revolution of ‘system-wide transformation’ has already begun.

The writer is former Director of UNEP. He is also the Founder-Director, Green TERRE Foundation; Prime Mover, SCCN; and Coordinating Lead Author, IPCC, which won the Nobel Peace Prize. He may be reached at shende.rajendra@gmail.com. He writes exclusively for Climate Control Middle East magazine.